It is recommended that the national shale gas project end immediately

Not long ago, the National Energy Administration’s dramatic reduction of China's shale gas "13th Five-Year Plan" capacity planning caused considerable shock and speculation in the industry. What are the reasons for the authorities to substantially reduce the shale gas capacity planning in China? What are the reserves and prospects of shale gas in China? And what kind of oil and gas theory is used to guide China's oil and gas exploration and exploitation? With these questions, the reporter interviewed Dr. Cui Yongqiang, the Daqing Oilfield Exploration Institute, who has long devoted himself to the research of oil and gas theoretical innovation.

Is there a basis for China's shale gas reserves?

Reporter: All along, the impression left on the Chinese people is that China's shale gas reserves are even more abundant than in the United States. Is this the case? How does this data come from?

Cui Yongqiang: China's shale gas reserves data from the United States. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued the “2011 Preliminary Assessment of Global Shale Gas Resources” on April 5, 2011, stating that China’s shale gas recoverable reserves are 36.1 trillion cubic meters, ranking first in the world; US shale Gas recoverable reserves of 23.4 trillion cubic meters, ranking second. The United States did not drill in China and its reserves data are not based. The Ministry of Land and Natural Resources designated shale gas as a new mineral species, but it has not done a systematic survey. It issued the “National Shale Gas Resource Potential Evaluation and Evaluation of Favorable Areas” on March 1, 2012, and stated that China’s land area page The potential of rock gas recoverable resources is 25.08 trillion cubic meters (excluding the Qinghai-Tibet region). This is also unfounded. It is nothing more than discounting the U.S. data.

In February 2012, the United States reduced its shale gas technology recoverable reserves to 13.649 trillion cubic meters, a reduction of nearly half. In 2011, the United States produced more than 170 billion cubic meters of shale gas, and more than 80,000 gas wells were involved in the production. However, EIA still “unclear” the true bottom of its shale gas technology recoverable reserves.

The United States Geological Survey (USGS)’s estimate of Marcellus Shale’s reserve in key shale fields forced the EIA to significantly reduce its forecast; the former indicated that there were only 84 trillion cubic meters, while the latter considered 410 trillion cubic meters, and EIA eventually reduced forecast by 80%. , and admit that the other party is a geologist.

On May 20th, 2014, EIA had predicted that shale oil reserves in the Monterey shale formation in California accounted for about two-thirds of shale oil reserves in the United States, but it used the existing technical capacity as a pretext to place this area. The recoverable amount was reduced from 13.7 billion barrels to 600 million barrels, and the number of recoverable reserves was reduced by 95%.

On April 8, 2013, "Chongqing Daily • Special Attention", a "Chongqing Shale Gas Industry Survey," reported that: "The Ministry of Finance and the National Energy Administration considered the shale gas reserves as only 5 trillion to 70,000 yuan when formulating the subsidy policy. Billion cubic meters, does not have strategic value."

Recently, Wu Xinxiong, director of the National Energy Administration, said that the 2020 shale gas production target will be lowered to 30 billion cubic meters, which is half of the 60 to 80 billion cubic meters before the downward adjustment. This shows that China's shale gas development situation is not optimistic.

Reporter: Since shale gas reserves data disclosed by some foreign institutions are not reliable, how should China treat shale gas reserves?

Cui Yongqiang: The shale gas reserves announced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration are clearly invisible, and their published shale gas reserves serve the U.S. global shale gas strategy. January 14, 2014 “Reference News” reprints “The Foreign Policy Spotlight” website of the United States on January 10th, “The Great Oil Deception” article, author Hafiz Ahmed made it clear that the shale gas revolution is actually a scam. The facts supporting this conclusion: In addition to the erratic shale gas recoverable reserves, the production of shale gas wells will drop by 60% to 90% in the first year of production; more new wells must be drilled in order to maintain the original production. Drilling companies will leave behind piles of debt; not long ago, Professor Feng Lianyong of the China University of Petroleum went to the United States to inspect shale gas, and the data on cash flow from the US shale gas industry also indirectly confirmed this fact. The hydraulic fracturing method consumes a huge amount of water resources, causes serious pollution of irreparable groundwater and surface water systems, and causes frequent earthquakes. Britain, France and other developed countries have banned shale gas extraction.