In 2014, it was a bumper year for many LED manufacturers, but it was also a challenging year. Although the demand from the lighting market in the first half of 2014 exceeded the expected strong, even the LED supply was in short supply.
However, due to the repeated orders from the client and the excessive inventory of the lighting channel, the influence of the over-stocking of the lighting channel gradually emerged in the second half of the year. Many manufacturers clearly felt the pressure of market demand and price competition. Therefore, for many LED manufacturers, the performance of the second half of the year, such as washing the sauna.
In the face of the upcoming 2015, what are the development trends in the LED industry?
1. LED manufacturers' expansion plans still depend on government subsidies, and China is still the largest MOCVD installation area.
LEDinside estimates that the number of new MOCVD installations in the world will reach 239 in 2014. From the number of installations in the area, China is still the largest MOCVD installation area. Looking forward to 2015, China's regional governments still have measures to continue subsidies, so there are still more than 170 installed capacity in China in 2015.
At present, the subsidies of local governments in China have also adjusted the subsidies in accordance with the price reduction of MOCVD equipment. At present, the amount of MOCVD subsidies has dropped from RMB 10 million to RMB 5 million in the past, but it is still profitable for many manufacturers. Overall, as LED manufacturers' expansion plans depend on local government subsidies, LED chip makers will show the phenomenon of large Evergrande in the future.
2. The big one is Evergrande, the market share of Chinese LED manufacturers continues to increase
With the technological upgrading and capacity release of China's LED chip factory, the proportion of China's chip production value to the global LED chip production value is 27% in 2013, and is expected to increase to 36% in 2014. In the past, China's LED backlighting or lighting applications rely on Taiwanese capital or foreign-invested companies.
As Chinese packaging manufacturers continue to increase the proportion of domestically produced chips, the price is also quite competitive, making Chinese manufacturers' market share in the global LED industry gradually increase.
3. LED lighting customers continue to find lower cost solutions
LED lighting market demand has been stimulated by a large number of demand due to the decline in the price of terminal lighting products. Looking forward to 2015, the main growth drivers of LED lighting products are still mainly from alternative light source products such as LED bulbs and LED tubes. Therefore, lighting customers are mainly considering the price and cost of LEDs.
The medium-power LED with good cost performance can meet the requirements of continuous price reduction of these LED lighting products. For example, 3030 and 2835 LEDs have become the mainstream in the market. In the future, LED manufacturers will still look for better heat-dissipating materials, reduce the number of LEDs used by high-current driving, and even COB LEDs are gradually favored by lighting customers.
In addition to the price reduction of LEDs, LED lighting manufacturers have begun to pay attention to other components such as drive power, and hope to achieve a lower cost solution through the overall system design.
4. Find a special application for the new blue ocean to increase profitability
Due to the fierce competition in LED prices, LED manufacturers hope to find some new special applications to increase profits. For example, invisible LEDs are gradually receiving attention from LED manufacturers, including UV or IR LEDs.
Although the market for invisible LEDs is limited, it cannot be compared to applications such as LED lighting or backlighting. However, due to technical difficulties, customization requirements, and the need to work closely with the system plant, it is high. The gross profit margin of products without visible light LEDs is significantly better than that of white LEDs.
From the perspective of the supply chain, UV LED and IR LED are mainly dominated by Japanese and European and American manufacturers. Taiwan LED manufacturers also have a place. In the future, more and more LED manufacturers will enter the field of invisible light.
5. The output value of automotive LEDs is growing year by year, among which the growth of exterior lighting is the largest.
The automotive LED market is growing steadily. Among them, the outdoor lighting (DRL) and headlights (H/L beam) have the best growth, mainly due to the technical improvement of high-power LEDs. With the decline in LED prices, automotive LED lighting has gradually shifted from high-end models to mid-range models, driving the demand for automotive lighting in the next few years.
In addition, the LED application part of the car is still dominated by the LED backlight of the vehicle panel. With the increasing popularity of multimedia and sensing images, traditional instrument panels have been changed to LCD panels, driving the need for automotive backlights.
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