According to the IHS survey, global TV demand has maintained steady growth for a long time, and will remain between 200 million and 250 million units for a long period of time. In recent years, a rare fluctuation occurred in the period of 2010-2011, TV consumption demand increased significantly, mainly due to economic recovery, especially the Japanese government's efforts to promote energy-efficient subsidies (Eco-point) directly boost TV consumption. In the long run, TV consumption is more directly affected by the economic climate, followed by advanced technology. It is estimated to be 250 million units in 2019. In terms of technology, plasma and traditional CRT TVs will be fully withdrawn during the year, and emerging OLED TVs are subject to factors such as technology and cost, and will not have a substitution effect on liquid crystals in the short term.
Zhang Bing, director of market research at IHS China, said: "The same as smart terminals, tablet PCs and smart phones do have a certain restraining effect on TV, but smart TV is the only smart positioning in the family that can be shared. Consumption habits, future demand will continue to maintain a slow growth trend. However, due to the evolution of competition and technology, the average price of TV consumption will decline year by year before the arrival of revolutionary technology, and the overall market will enter increments. Do not increase the normal state."
OLED TV development trend
OLED has always been hailed as a revolutionary TV technology. Due to its self-illumination characteristics, its contrast, black field, color gamut, etc., combined with a simple structure, is significantly improved compared to current liquid crystal technology, and is regarded as the next generation display technology. However, due to the current OLED mainly adopts FMM (fine metal mask) evaporation technology, due to the complicated process and the complicated backplane driving technology, the OLED panel yield is extremely low, and the price is large for the large-size OLED TV display. Still quite expensive. The industry generally believes that in the future, OLEDs must rely on OLED printing technology to achieve large size, high resolution, and cost reduction. However, major players including Korean panel makers have been trying for many years, but there is still a certain distance from mass production.
At present, in the supply of large-size OLED TV panels, LG Display, which uses white OLED+ color film technology, is still the only one, and competitors including Samsung are still waiting to see the status. According to IHS estimates, in 2015, global OLED TV shipments will still be less than 500,000 units, and by 2019 will reach 7 million units.
Surface and ultra-thin plane
In the past, for a long period of time, the specifications of the brand manufacturers and panel manufacturers were highly consistent; and the emergence of curved TVs allowed the brand manufacturers to differentiate into two camps: curved surfaces and ultra-thin planes. The former is represented by Samsung, Sony, and TCL and Hisense, and the latter is represented by LG, Skyworth and major Japanese brands. From the technical point of view, both LCD and OLED can realize surface display, but different LCD technologies have different difficulty and cost in realizing the surface; in terms of viewing experience, there is no fundamental difference between curved surface and flat TV. From the perspective of IHS, the main appeal of curved TV is still the difference in appearance and appearance, and there are certain fashion trends. Over time, we expect that surface TV shipments are likely to reach a peak of 8 million units in 2016-2017, and the time will be reduced.
Since the complicated backlight structure is not required, the OLED is easier to realize the curved surface display than the liquid crystal; in addition to the higher premium of the OLED, a considerable part of the OLED will be a curved surface structure. But whether it is OLED or liquid crystal, the realization of surface display will bring the cost and the difficulty of system integration, which is why IHS is relatively cautious about the prediction of curved TV.
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