ã€The new carmakers are entering a critical window period, and the new energy car is the only one that is incredible!†At the Beijing Auto Show, which opened on April 25th, a brokerage analyst and reporters crowded together to “build a new force†Beiteng. The scene of the hot car conference experienced the visual shock of a 49-inch large screen built into a new energy vehicle. The Beijing auto show has always been regarded as an arena for major auto manufacturers to show their future routes. At this year's auto show, a total of 174 new energy models were exhibited, including 124 new energy models of its own brand, and new energy vehicles became the protagonists.
As the double-integration policy has been implemented, with the acceleration of the subsidy, the proportion of major auto companies' strategic investment in new energy auto products will increase rapidly. At the same time, the automobile joint venture stocks are facing more opportunities than ever before, and the development of multiple lines for speeding up the reshuffling of the power battery industry and the development of technology routes will face new opportunities and challenges for the new energy automotive industry. On the eve of a huge change, the corporate vertical and horizontal format is even more complicated.
New vehicle manufacturers enter key window period
In 2018, a group of “new carmakers†entrepreneurial car brands such as Weilai, Xiaopeng, Weimar, Beiteng, Singularity, etc. entered the actual vehicle production stage.
The number of new vehicle manufacturers has already become a must. According to incomplete statistics in the industry, the number of “new vehicle-making forces†influx into the past three years has reached 314. Most of the new vehicle builders take the pure electric new energy vehicle route. In 2018, the foreign capital ratio of new energy vehicles will soon be released. It is foreseeable that the former joint ventures and local car companies have intercepted the intrinsic sphere of influence and there is a large influx of imported vehicles. With China’s catch-up, the window of time for the development of these new forces has been greatly shortened.
The new vehicle builders themselves obviously have realized this. On April 20, the low selling price of the first mass production vehicle EX5 of Weimar Automobile surpassed expectations: the new car starts at 165,600,000 yuan, and the subsidy price is only 9,900 yuan. Compared to the price of Weilai’s ES8, Weimar’s price appears very grounded.
“These entrepreneurs are still in the stage of survival. They must immediately establish a foothold in the Chinese market. Earning no money is not the main indicator. They are ready to lose money. The biggest difference between the new car builders and the traditional car companies is to bring Internet ideas. Into the car industry: a large number of subsidized consumers, so that the sales data look good, like the Internet to make traffic eyeball eyeball.†Mei Songlin told the China Securities News reporter, for the new car builders, get the market attention, to obtain a certain amount of sales is The most critical KPI indicator. The living space left for them after the policy change will be very small, and the action will certainly be more radical.
Statistics show that in 2017, the entire new vehicle-building enterprise completed financing of 22.5 billion yuan to 23.5 billion yuan. With mass production imminent, the demand for funds has become more urgent. In an interview with a reporter from the China Securities Journal, Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Association of Travel Unions, said, “With the product entering the market inspection period, the market performance of the first product is very important. Consumers’ cognition of the brand depends mainly on the product. There is a strong backing of capital behind the forces. In the next two years, domestic capital will inevitably adjust its investment direction and increase investment in its own recognized brands. The strong and the weak will accelerate their differentiation."
Zhao Fuquan, Dean of the Institute of Automobile Industry and Technology at Tsinghua University, believes that “the favor of capital has provided capital protection for the development of emerging manufacturing companies, but at the same time there are obvious problems. The development of enterprises has become to some extent Round-robin financing and time competition, not product R&D and competitor competition."
It is still too early to tell whether the new forces will be able to reshape the entire automobile ecosystem in China. However, with the arrival of volume production and the release of joint ventures, the market is expected to reshuffle and fight the new energy vehicle market. It does not appear, contrary to the reality of "a group of Qi."
On April 20, Baiteng announced that it would hand in China FAW. China FAW not only participates in the Benteng B round of financing as a strategic investor, but in the future the two sides will also conduct in-depth cooperation in product development, production, sales, and service. Both parties choose to use cooperation to learn from each other: At present, FAW is at a comprehensive reform threshold, and Beiteng has been unable to bypass the threshold of production qualifications.
"Traditional car companies have the resources to integrate, manufacturing capabilities and capital advantages; the new car manufacturers have the advantage of embracing new technologies and openness, the combination of the two sides can go out of the third road, this choice is clearly more cooperation than competition." Mei Songlin said.
New combination driven by double-integration policy
In fact, the liberalization of new energy vehicle stocks has become more apparent last year. In June 2017, Volkswagen Group, which had been in the Chinese auto market for more than 30 years, once again established a partnership with Jianghuai Automobile after establishing FAW-Volkswagen and SAIC-Volkswagen. The two companies each had a 50% stake, and established JAC Volkswagen to produce pure electric vehicles. . Since then, BAIC and Daimler, Ford and Zotye, Great Wall and BMW have also launched their new portfolios. The combination of foreign and Chinese investment has become increasingly complex.
This new combination is due in large part to the demand for double-credit compliance.
On September 28, 2017, the “Measures for the Parallel Management of Passenger Vehicles' Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Integration†(ie “Double Pointsâ€) policy was introduced, and it is generally believed that the future pattern of China’s new energy automobile industry will be laid.
According to the policy, when calculating the points, the actual fuel consumption value of the fuel vehicle and the actual cruising mileage of the new energy model will be comprehensively calculated. If the fuel consumption of a fuel vehicle within the integration range is lower than the national standard, positive integration will be obtained, otherwise the integral will be negative. . New energy vehicles are all positive points. The higher the mileage, the higher the points. The upper limit is 5 points. Therefore, in order to obtain higher positive scores, car companies are trying hard to reduce fuel consumption of their own vehicles on the one hand, and on the other hand choose to form an alliance. As the independent brands are located earlier in the field of new energy vehicles, so long as the independent brands that have made achievements in the new energy sector will be the “Xiangqi†that foreign brands are competing for.
The double-credit policy was formally implemented on April 1, but the assessment requirements for points were postponed until 2019, and points in 2019 and 2020 can be combined for assessment. Although the policy gives a one-year buffer period, neither the joint venture brand nor the independent brand can afford to relax. Judging from the plans of various companies in this auto show, the proportion of strategic investment in new energy automotive products is rapidly increasing.
For foreign brands, taking VW Group as an example, in the future, Volkswagen will invest EUR 34 billion worldwide to promote electric vehicles and new travel plans. It plans to invest EUR 15 billion in China to expand electric power by 2022. Car, autopilot, digital travel and other services. In terms of Chinese brands, taking Chang'an Automobile as an example, it announced the launch of its third venture at the strategic conference. It is planned that by 2020, the sales of new energy vehicles will reach 350,000 and enter the industry’s first echelon. By 2025, it will achieve full electrification and sales of new energy vehicles will reach 1.16 million, making it the first Chinese brand. In addition, it is worth noting that each car company is gradually escaping from A00-level low-end consumption this year, and the high-end mileage and high-profile new energy vehicle types are blooming.
The advantages of China's new energy automotive industry appear
“The design of BYD Qin is very sophisticated and it can be said that it is not worse than Audi.†Some exhibitors lamented the China Securities Journal. Since BYD launched Audi's design director Iger, the new energy car has increased its face value, and its design is delicate and full of Chinese characteristics. In fact, the promotion of BYD brand power is just a microcosm of China's new energy vehicles. With the full-blown industry, China's new energy vehicles are reborn from the inside out.
At the policy level, the automobile industry has recently released an open signal: In 2018, the restrictions on the number of new energy vehicles will be released, and the same foreign company will no longer be allowed to set up more than two joint ventures. According to China's current automobile industry development policy, foreign car companies need to set up joint ventures in China, and the Chinese share ratio must not be less than 50%. The same foreign company has up to two partners in China for similar products, and new energy auto companies may not be subject to joint ventures. Limits on quotas.
Since 2017, the State Council has clearly no longer approved the production capacity of traditional automobiles. Therefore, it is impossible for foreign car manufacturers to establish more than two joint ventures in China through traditional vehicles. If a third joint venture is to be established, only Through the new establishment of a new energy vehicle company. It can be foreseen that the competition among various car companies in the new energy automotive sector will intensify.
Under the open background, with the global car companies to carry out the full competition of the new energy automotive industry chain, Chinese car companies can face challenges?
Throughout the global new energy automotive industry, China's own brand new energy vehicles have considerable competitive strength. According to statistics, in 2017, the total sales of new energy vehicles in the world exceeded 1.42 million, and cumulative sales exceeded 3.4 million. In 2017, the sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 770,000, and the cumulative sales volume reached 1.8 million, accounting for more than 50% of the world's cumulative sales. It is a true new energy automobile power. At present, China has the most mature supply chain for new energy vehicles in the world, and the shipment of power batteries accounts for more than 60% of the world's total.
In addition, in the auto group, there has been a phenomenon that independent brands have exported new-energy automotive technologies to joint venture companies. SAIC's own brand SAIC Motors exports new energy automobile systems, Guangzhou Automobile Transmission Co., Ltd. exports output of new energy vehicles to GAC Mitsubishi Motors, Guangzhou Firk, etc. Model.
It is worth noting that Tesla, as a "squid" in the global new energy automotive industry, will establish an independent factory in China and will directly agitate the activity of the entire industry chain, and the related industrial chain will directly benefit. Cao Zhong, chairman of Cheung Kong Automotive, believes that if Tesla entered China solely, without joint venture partners' blessings, he would face the dual pressure of new energy vehicles and traditional cars from China alone. The basic Chinese huge market is full of temptations, but " Tesla has a lot of pressure to set up factories in China."
For some foreign OEMs that are not as aggressive as Tesla, J. D. Mei Songlin, vice president of Power, believes that if foreign capital operates a new energy auto plant independently in China, it may stagger the existing market segments occupied by the joint venture, and make a mid-to-low-end new energy vehicle in China. “Generally, a joint venture brand What is going on is a brand-up strategy, but in the future, we will not rule out that they will enter the low-end segment of new energy vehicles, which will directly compete with China's own brands."
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