Following the successful grid connection of the 630 photovoltaic power station in 2017, the distributed photovoltaic industry presented a remarkable performance. Statistics show that in the first half of 2017, there were 24.40 gigawatts (GW) of newly installed photovoltaic capacity, with 7.11 GW being distributed photovoltaics, representing over 29% of the total. This impressive growth caught the attention of numerous investors, some of whom even suggested chasing further opportunities by investing in newly constructed distributed photovoltaic projects. They argued that there were still plenty of high-quality distributed photovoltaic roof resources available. But is this truly the case?
As we all know, distributed power stations require stringent conditions regarding the load, structure, orientation, surrounding environment, property rights, power facilities, and grid access resources. Roofs must have no obstructions like tall buildings or chimneys nearby to ensure optimal light reception and power generation. Dust-emitting enterprises such as thermal power plants should not be located in the vicinity to prevent dust from accumulating on the photovoltaic modules. Roofs must also be resilient against typhoons and hail, avoiding areas prone to natural disasters. Additionally, the property rights of the roof owners must be clear, and their credibility must be verified to ensure smooth operation and profitability of the distributed power plants. Perhaps most crucially, the roof owners must have the intention to construct distributed photovoltaic power plants. For instance, some large state-owned enterprises may own excellent rooftops with easy access to electricity, but without the desire to host such projects, these rooftops become difficult to utilize.
In summary, the criteria for high-quality distributed photovoltaic rooftops are quite stringent and not easily met. Prior to the 630 grid connection deadline, major investment companies conducted extensive searches, screenings, acquisitions, and stockpiling of domestic roof resources. Consequently, high-quality rooftops suitable for constructing distributed photovoltaic power plants have largely been identified.
According to industry insiders, commercial and industrial rooftops have always been the focal point for distributed photovoltaic companies. Generally, high-quality rooftops capable of hosting large-scale distributed photovoltaic power plants are mainly owned by industrial enterprises, commercial enterprises, public institutions, large state-owned enterprises, and listed manufacturing companies. These rooftops, due to their large area, substantial investment scale, and limited government policy planning, are not expected to grow significantly in the near future. Therefore, high-quality industrial and commercial rooftops will remain scarce for a long time. For example, one enterprise searched for over 20 GW of rooftops in 2016, but only about 5% of that—less than 1 GW—was actually suitable for distributed photovoltaic projects. In other words, 95% of the rooftop resources are not ideal for building distributed photovoltaic power plants.
For existing buildings that haven’t yet hosted distributed photovoltaic power plants, most of the rooftops that remain after multiple rounds of screening by PV companies from 2015 to 2017 tend to be either too small, bear too light a load, or are severely damaged. Additionally, many roofs lack clear property rights, and some companies face issues with creditworthiness. Professional analysis suggests that among the existing rooftops, only a limited number can independently support more than 3 megawatts (MW), and those that can be continuously developed to build large-scale distributed photovoltaic power plants are even scarcer. Industrial and commercial rooftops are a product of societal and economic development. Given the current status and trends of domestic economic growth, it’s unlikely that a significant amount of high-quality rooftop resources will emerge in the short term.
According to relevant surveys, in terms of lighting conditions, high-quality commercial and industrial rooftops in regions like Shandong, Hebei, and Henan have been nearly fully developed. The few remaining high-quality rooftops are now being fiercely contested by major PV companies.
As early as August 1, 2016, the state released the National Standard for Rooftop Distributed Power Station Structures. The new standard explicitly mandates compliance with current national mandatory standards, making it impossible to calculate roof loads based on outdated standards. This regulation immediately disqualified many previously eligible rooftops from being considered high-quality resources since they failed to meet the new mandatory standards. Under these new standards, companies would need to spend an additional 0.3 yuan per watt on reinforcement costs for distributed photovoltaic rooftops. For a 1-megawatt (MW) distributed power station, this reinforcement cost could reach as high as 300,000 yuan, significantly increasing the investment burden on companies.
Thus, prior to the 630 grid connection deadline in 2017, high-quality rooftops for distributed photovoltaic projects were akin to finding a needle in a haystack. Only those with excellent lighting conditions and high investment returns were considered “golden rooftops†for distributed photovoltaics. However, after 630 in 2017, newly invested distributed photovoltaic projects would not benefit from a large number of high-quality rooftop resources. Furthermore, the cost of roof reinforcement will rise, labor costs will increase, and there will likely be no significant reduction in photovoltaic module and other material costs in the short term. The rising cost of power station construction is becoming increasingly critical. Typically, after 630, the national subsidy standard and benchmark on-grid tariff are reduced. This leads to a sharp decline in the return on investment for new power plants, diminishing their attractiveness.
Given the current market conditions, after 630, high-quality rooftops are scarce. For investment companies and the four small five power generation groups, there are two main options for distributed photovoltaic power plant investments: first, continue developing non-roof power stations, which presents challenges such as high development difficulty, intense competition, and lower yields. Second, purchase already constructed distributed photovoltaic power plants to maximize economic and social benefits.
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