Following the passage of the June 30th grid-connection window in 2017, the distributed photovoltaic industry presented a remarkable performance. Statistics show that in the first half of 2017, 24.40 gigawatts of new photovoltaic installations were added, with 7.11 gigawatts being distributed photovoltaics, representing over 29% of the total. This impressive growth caught the attention of numerous investors who began considering increased investments in newly constructed distributed photovoltaic projects. They argued that many high-quality roof resources remained untapped. But is this truly the case?
As everyone knows, distributed power stations demand stringent criteria for the load-bearing capacity, structural integrity, orientation, surrounding environment, ownership rights, electrical infrastructure, and grid connection capabilities of rooftops. There can be no shading from nearby structures like tall buildings or chimneys, as these could hinder light reception and reduce power generation efficiency. Roofs should also be free from high-dust emitting industries, such as thermal power plants, to prevent dust accumulation on photovoltaic modules. Natural disasters like typhoons and hailstorms must be avoided, as they pose risks to the stability of the system. Additionally, the legal ownership of the roof must be clearly defined, and the credibility of the owning entity must be verified to ensure smooth operations and profitability. Crucially, the management of the roof-owning enterprise must demonstrate a willingness to invest in distributed photovoltaic systems.
In summary, the high-quality roof standards required for distributed photovoltaic power plants are exceedingly stringent and not easily accessible. Prior to the June 30th deadline, major investment firms had already conducted extensive searches, screenings, acquisitions, and stockpilings of domestic roof resources. Consequently, high-quality roofs suitable for distributed photovoltaic installations have become increasingly scarce.
Industry experts suggest that commercial and industrial roofs remain the primary focus for distributed photovoltaic companies. High-quality roofs capable of supporting large-scale installations are typically owned by industrial enterprises, commercial entities, public institutions, large state-owned enterprises, and listed manufacturing companies. These types of roofs face limitations due to their expansive areas, substantial investment scales, extensive land usage, and government policy constraints. As such, high-quality industrial and commercial roof resources are expected to remain scarce for the foreseeable future. For instance, in 2016, an enterprise searched for over 20 gigawatts of roof space, yet only about 5%—less than 1 gigawatt—was actually utilized for distributed photovoltaic projects. This means that 95% of the available roof space was unsuitable for such installations.
Currently, the remaining roof resources that are not utilized for distributed photovoltaic power plants often result from multiple rounds of screening by PV companies between 2015 and 2017. These include small roof areas with low load-bearing capacity, severely damaged roofs, unclear property rights, or issues with the credibility of the owning company. Professional analysis indicates that among the existing roof resources, only a limited number of roofs belonging to companies capable of independently constructing more than 3 megawatts exist. Even fewer roofs are large enough for contiguous development and the establishment of large-scale distributed photovoltaic power plants. Industrial and commercial building roofs are products of socio-economic development. Given the current state and trajectory of China's economic growth, it is unlikely that a significant number of high-quality roof resources will emerge in the near future.
According to relevant surveys, in terms of lighting conditions, high-quality commercial and industrial roofs in provinces like Shandong, Hebei, and Henan have been nearly fully developed. The few remaining high-quality roofs are now being fiercely contested by major PV companies.
As early as August 1, 2016, the state released the National Standard for Rooftop Distributed Power Station Structures. This new standard explicitly mandates compliance with current national mandatory standards, effectively eliminating the previous method of calculating roof load capacities. Under this regulation, even roofs that were previously considered viable for distributed photovoltaic power stations and not chosen by PV companies prior to June 30th were disqualified as high-quality roofing resources due to failing to meet the new mandatory standards. The implementation of these mandatory standards increases the cost of reinforcing distributed photovoltaic roofs by approximately 0.3 yuan per watt. For example, reinforcing a 1-megawatt distributed power station would cost upwards of 300,000 yuan, significantly increasing the financial burden on companies.
Thus, the high-quality roof resources for distributed power station projects before the June 30th grid-connection in 2017 were akin to finding a needle in a haystack. Projects with superior lighting conditions and high-quality roofs boasted higher investment returns and became known as "golden roofs" in the distributed photovoltaic sector. However, post-June 30th distributed photovoltaic projects in 2017 are unlikely to have access to a significant number of such high-quality rooftop resources. Furthermore, the costs of roof reinforcement, labor, and photovoltaic materials are unlikely to see significant reductions in the short term. This increase in power station construction costs is particularly concerning. Typically, following June 30th, the national subsidy standards and benchmark feed-in tariffs are reduced, leading to a sharp decline in the return on investment for new projects and diminishing their overall attractiveness.
For the current market situation, the scarcity of high-quality rooftops after June 30th presents challenges for investment companies and the "four small five" power generation groups. Their options for distributed photovoltaic power plant investments are limited. First, they could continue developing non-roof-based power stations, but this approach faces difficulties such as high development barriers, intense competition, and reduced yields. Alternatively, they could acquire already-built distributed photovoltaic power plants to maximize both economic returns and social benefits.
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