2014 Global 4G Spread Wings "One Big Four Small" Dominant Market

Taiwan ’s 4G bid is over. For the benefits of 4G, so far there have been big bosses shooting questions, but the global development of 4G is already a predictable fact. With the construction of base stations in succession, next year can be said to be the first year of global 4G takeoff. And as terminal devices equipped with 4G specifications will gradually become the mainstream, all chip manufacturers are all rubbing their hands and preparing to make a big turn through 4G. Hong Cenwei, vice president of research at Gartner, the research institute, analyzes that next year the 4G LTE chip battle will still be a "big four small" situation. Qualcomm will maintain its leading position, but MediaTek and other "four small" manufacturers are catching up.

2014 Global 4G Spread Wings "One Big Four Small" Hegemony Market

MediaTek will launch the first LTE solution by the end of the year, and the LTE system single chip is expected to be launched in the middle of next year. Facing the global competition situation of 4G LTE chips, Hong Cenwei pointed out that Qualcomm still holds the leading position in the global 4G LTE chip market next year, followed by MediaTek, followed by Intel, Broadcom and Marvell.

He estimates that Qualcomm's global 4G LTE chip market share will still be as high as 80% to 90% next year. Even though MediaTek has a better strategic position in the Chinese market, it will have a 50% chance in the local market.

Hong Cenwei estimated that this year's global 4G LTE chip shipments will be about 100-200 million, next year is expected to grow to 200-300 million, of which North America is the largest market, the Chinese market has just started, shipments are estimated at 4000 Ten to fifty million. Moreover, judging from the opening status of bids such as China Mobile, China's 4G chip market shipments or amount next year should still be dominated by Qualcomm.

However, he analyzed that although MediaTek lags behind Qualcomm, it is still the company with the faster progress among other 4G chip manufacturers.

As for the future of 4G development, Hong Cenwei pointed out that the most complete deployment of LTE infrastructure is the United States and South Korea, but if evaluated by growth rate, China has the steepest growth curve from scratch. In addition, he also bluntly said that the challenges that 4G may encounter in the future are that telecom operators and communication service providers (CSP) may not be directly proportional to investment and recovery.

According to Gartner data, by 2015, CSP will invest 34% of total capital expenditure on 4G LTE infrastructure, but by then only 7% of the world ’s users may adopt 4G LTE specifications; even by 2016, mobile communication data traffic There will be a compound growth of 70% in adulthood, but it is estimated that about 40% of the 3.5 billion smartphones in the world will remain in 3G in 2017. In addition, 4G user charges in the United States and South Korea have shown a downward trend. In the future, charges may even fall to the same level as 3G.

What's worth noting is that the market is discussing heated "5G" specifications. Hong Cenwei laughed and said that he can't see it now. It is a "distant thing." At least it will take another 3-5 years before standards can be born. Despite the unpredictable changes in the technology industry, 4G has just started, and some people shouted that they should preempt 5G, which also highlights the fact that officials and practitioners are eager to get out of the predicament.

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