According to PwC's long-term tracking and monitoring analysis, the global sales of new energy vehicles reached 500,000 units in 2015, of which 330,000 units were sold in the Chinese market, three times that of 2014, and far ahead of the rest of the world. In the next few years, as the government continues to subsidize new energy vehicles, new energy vehicle technologies and costs continue to improve, infrastructure is gradually scaled up, consumer acceptance is greatly enhanced, and the government's policy on licenses and restrictions is given. Support, China's new energy vehicles will also grow substantially, by 2022 the annual output of new energy vehicles will reach 2 million, with a compound annual growth rate of up to 30%.
Affected by factors such as large-scale production, process improvement, raw material cost reduction, and technological advancement, battery costs have been declining in the past two years, far exceeding the industry's authoritative forecasts. If BYD has realized a battery module cost of 222 US dollars / kWh, its battery cost can be reduced by 50% in the next 3-5 years, reaching 110 US dollars. Tesla also expects the cost to drop to $200 or less after its super factory is online. Once the battery cost of these companies really drops as expected, it will definitely drive down the cost of new energy vehicles and stimulate sales.
In terms of infrastructure, according to statistics, as of the end of 2015, China has built 159,000 charging piles with a gap of 241,000, with an average of one charging pile for every four new energy vehicles. Although it can not meet the 1:1 ratio of new energy vehicle ownership and charging equipment target ratio, with the scale of electric vehicles, the strengthening of national policy support, the mature charging standards, the increased investment of power grid enterprises, and the opening of industries to private, China’s charging The pile industry is also gradually becoming large-scale and profitable, and is expected to reach 4.8 million in 2020.
In addition, in the past five years, measures such as 3-5 million large subsidies, consumption tax and other tax reductions, license priority, and electricity price concessions have greatly promoted the consumption of new energy vehicles in the first- and second-tier cities with limited prices. Consumers who have purchased or experienced new energy vehicles have found that the driving experience and charging experience of new energy vehicles are actually better than expected, and the promotion of time-sharing of electric vehicles has increased consumer awareness of electric vehicles and promoted their use. The cultivation of habits has promoted the promotion and popularization of new energy vehicles to a certain extent, and greatly improved the market penetration rate of domestic new energy vehicles.
Intelligent network: market size continues to double, no driver needs time
Like the new energy vehicles, although the overall environment of the domestic auto market is gradually returning to moderate growth, the scale of the intelligent network auto market is expanding. Statistics from PricewaterhouseCoopers show that by 2022, China's intelligent networked car market will reach 155 billion US dollars, three times that of the present. Among them, autonomous driving is one of the core areas of intelligent network. It is estimated that by 2025, 20% of the new cars on the market will have obvious auto-driving functions. By 2030, the market penetration rate of self-driving vehicles will be 15%- 20%, then people may see autonomous vehicles without a steering wheel.
In the past two years, consumers' demand for automotive interconnection and intelligent transportation has become increasingly strong, driving more and more manufacturers to focus on the development of intelligent driving systems. At present, BMW's remote valet parking technology is the technology of passengers' self-parking after getting off the bus; Volkswagen's emergency assist system, which can automatically stop the vehicle in an emergency situation... Such advanced intelligent driving systems are constantly being Developed to drive the overall improvement of China's intelligent networked car technology, and even the emergence of IT Internet companies across the border, such as Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent and other technology giants, are already in a forward-looking layout, further accelerate The prosperity of China's intelligent networked automobile market.
Overall, everyone's focus is on seven functional areas: autonomous driving, safety, entertainment, physical and mental health, vehicle management, mobility management and home integration. Almost all of them are currently conducting intelligent networked car research. The company's work focuses on these seven cores. In particular, autonomous driving, as a breakthrough technology, is subverting the structure of the traditional automobile industry and changing the nature of the automobile industry, making the future of the automobile more than just a means of transportation, but more like a new automobile technology function package, through the computer. The interconnection between smart devices, sensors, actuators and other smart devices has completely changed people's car life.
PwC predicts that 55% of cars will have automatic driving assistance systems by 2020, and automated driving will be applied first in luxury cars, and then quickly applied to high-yield models from top to bottom. Then, as the market penetration of the Autonomous Automated System continues to increase, the prices of Tier 1 and Tier 2 systems will continue to decline over the next five years.
After 2020, individual system costs will continue to decrease, but the number of systems will increase and continue into the development of driverless cars beyond 2025. In terms of technology, the cloud and external systems will provide more and more support services in 2020-2025. It is estimated that 71% of the sold cars will have automatic driving assistance systems by 2025, but fully automated driving is estimated to be very much 2025 years ago. Difficult to form.
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