On March 5, in the reports of the government work of the two associations, Premier Wen Jiabao pointed out that the increase in consumer prices in 2012 will be controlled at about 4%, and the GDP of China’s GDP is expected to increase by 7.5%, which is the first time in eight years that the GDP growth rate is lower than 8 %. After the news broke out, the market’s slowdown in demand for China’s demand increased. As a result, global stocks and commodities were dragged down continuously and continuously. Lundberg’s lead fell more than 5% in two trading days, and Shanghai Lead’s decline also reached more than 3%.
In addition to the power industry, the rapid development of the motor vehicle industry has also played an important role in lead demand, directly promoting the growth of downstream demand for lead. The most important demand for lead in China comes from lead-acid batteries, which account for 80% of the total demand. The use of batteries for automobiles, electric vehicles, and motorcycles accounted for more than 70% of the total lead-acid batteries used. In 2011, China’s auto production was 19 million vehicles, which has already become the world’s largest automotive producer. The output of electric bicycles ranges from several hundred thousand per year to an annual output of more than 20 million. The explosive growth of China's auto and electric vehicle industries in the past two years has also directly driven the rapid expansion of the lead-acid battery industry. Lead-acid battery companies have rapidly expanded from 55 in 2009 to more than 2,000 in 2011.
However, the rapid growth has also brought many hidden dangers to the industry. In 2011, pollution and blood lead poisoning occurred frequently in various places. The sewerage problem in the non-ferrous metals industry has also gradually been put on the supervision agenda by government agencies. In 2011, the environmental protection department proposed the “Acceptance Conditions for Lead-acid Battery Industry†for the lead-acid battery industry rectification, and plans to integrate the existing 2,000 lead-acid battery companies into 300.
On March 5th, Li Yi, deputy director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and former Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology spent money in interviews with reporters. In 2012, the pace of GDP growth was slowed down. The first thing to control was the “high-energy†and “high-energy†companies. Promote the implementation of energy-saving and emission reduction and promote the transformation of China's economic growth mode. At the same time, it also pointed out that the development of new energy vehicles must first solve the problem of the technical route, and it cannot rely solely on policy promotion. In addition, the budget report submitted on March 5 also listed resource tax environmental protection tax as the key target of the tax reform. This will undoubtedly have a big negative effect on non-ferrous metals.
However, from the point of view of long-term development of the industry, this is not an absolute negative. The restrictions on entry barriers will enable the industry to accelerate the upgrading of industrial institutions, optimize and upgrade production processes, increase technological transformation, and reduce pollution emissions. This will change the disorder of the lead storage battery industry. Although the number of companies will be reduced as a result, reorganization will make production more concentrated, and process improvements will also increase production efficiency. Although there will be pollution in the production process, there will be no pollution in the downstream demand, and the huge demand market will continue to expand. This will inevitably accelerate the upgrading of industrial structure and increase production. As the technology continues to mature, lead-acid batteries will occupy a broader space in the automotive sector.
The decline in short-term demand may have a negative impact on lead prices. However, in the long run, with the continuous improvement of the industry and the recovery of downstream demand, lead prices will also provide some support.
In addition to the power industry, the rapid development of the motor vehicle industry has also played an important role in lead demand, directly promoting the growth of downstream demand for lead. The most important demand for lead in China comes from lead-acid batteries, which account for 80% of the total demand. The use of batteries for automobiles, electric vehicles, and motorcycles accounted for more than 70% of the total lead-acid batteries used. In 2011, China’s auto production was 19 million vehicles, which has already become the world’s largest automotive producer. The output of electric bicycles ranges from several hundred thousand per year to an annual output of more than 20 million. The explosive growth of China's auto and electric vehicle industries in the past two years has also directly driven the rapid expansion of the lead-acid battery industry. Lead-acid battery companies have rapidly expanded from 55 in 2009 to more than 2,000 in 2011.
However, the rapid growth has also brought many hidden dangers to the industry. In 2011, pollution and blood lead poisoning occurred frequently in various places. The sewerage problem in the non-ferrous metals industry has also gradually been put on the supervision agenda by government agencies. In 2011, the environmental protection department proposed the “Acceptance Conditions for Lead-acid Battery Industry†for the lead-acid battery industry rectification, and plans to integrate the existing 2,000 lead-acid battery companies into 300.
On March 5th, Li Yi, deputy director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and former Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology spent money in interviews with reporters. In 2012, the pace of GDP growth was slowed down. The first thing to control was the “high-energy†and “high-energy†companies. Promote the implementation of energy-saving and emission reduction and promote the transformation of China's economic growth mode. At the same time, it also pointed out that the development of new energy vehicles must first solve the problem of the technical route, and it cannot rely solely on policy promotion. In addition, the budget report submitted on March 5 also listed resource tax environmental protection tax as the key target of the tax reform. This will undoubtedly have a big negative effect on non-ferrous metals.
However, from the point of view of long-term development of the industry, this is not an absolute negative. The restrictions on entry barriers will enable the industry to accelerate the upgrading of industrial institutions, optimize and upgrade production processes, increase technological transformation, and reduce pollution emissions. This will change the disorder of the lead storage battery industry. Although the number of companies will be reduced as a result, reorganization will make production more concentrated, and process improvements will also increase production efficiency. Although there will be pollution in the production process, there will be no pollution in the downstream demand, and the huge demand market will continue to expand. This will inevitably accelerate the upgrading of industrial structure and increase production. As the technology continues to mature, lead-acid batteries will occupy a broader space in the automotive sector.
The decline in short-term demand may have a negative impact on lead prices. However, in the long run, with the continuous improvement of the industry and the recovery of downstream demand, lead prices will also provide some support.
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