Five major electronic products in the next 10 years will drive demand in the semiconductor market

In the 10 years to 2010, semiconductor consumption has undergone tremendous changes. Until around 2000, the driving force for the growth of semiconductor consumption has been desktop computers (PCs), office computers (Office computers), wired communication devices, and home appliances. Subsequently, notebook computers, digital home appliances and mobile phones began to rise, and the main body of semiconductor consumption shifted from companies to households and individuals. Recently, with the increase in the number of semiconductor consumers, the trend of consumption expansion has become increasingly apparent. The reason is that the income of the BOP (base of population: the poor who earn less than 3,000 U.S. dollars) keeps rising and gradually becomes a new semiconductor consumption layer. The electronic products that are produced for this semiconductor consumer layer are currently dominated by EMS and ODM manufacturing methods. The share of EMS and ODM products in all semiconductor products has soared from 8% 10 years ago to 32%. The changes in the last 10 years have far exceeded our forecast. By analogy, changes in the next 10 years are also likely to greatly exceed current expectations.

Air-conditioners, PCs, and large-screen TVs will quickly become popular in Chinese cities. To make predictions on the situation after 10 years, it is necessary to review history.

In Japan, in the mid-1950s, refrigerators, washing machines, and vacuum cleaners were collectively referred to as “three majors.” In the mid-1960s, color TVs, air conditioners, and automobiles (private cars) were collectively referred to as “3C,” and durable consumer goods continued to gain popularity. In the 1970s, popular products such as cassette recorders, stereo equipment, passenger cars, air conditioners, and microwave ovens were introduced, and electronic products began to be widely used.

As electronic products continue to become popular, along with the increase in consumer income, products are gradually advanced and the number of possessions is also increasing. In the 1970s, TVs were gradually upgraded from black-and-white TVs to color TVs. Since the second half of the 1980s, refrigerators have continued to be large-scale, air-conditioning has been upgraded from air-conditioning-only models to dual-use models, and washing machines have gradually become fully automated, while TV screens are getting bigger. In addition, in durable consumer goods, there is also a product that has a household penetration rate (amount retained divided by the number of households) of more than 100%. Take color TV as an example, nearly 40% of households have more than three.

In China's urban areas, refrigerators, washing machines, and color TVs have become popular as basic consumer durables. The penetration rate of these consumer products reached the upper limit in the 1990s, but the popularity of color TVs continued to expand after more than 100%. Air-conditioning began to spread after it entered the 1990s, and mobile phones and PCs have rapidly become popular since the late 1990s. Compared with basic durable consumer goods, these durable consumer goods have brought people a more comfortable life. This is a proof that China's urban areas have stepped into a highly consumer society.

Let's focus on the popularity of durable consumer goods. The popularity of refrigerators, washing machines, and vacuum cleaners began to spread to the peak. Japan spent about 20 years, and China's urban areas took only 15 years. Because the number of people in urban areas in China is greater than in Japan, the industry has always believed that it will take longer to popularize. But the result does not seem to be the case. Products that are expected to rapidly spread in China's urban areas in the next 10 years include air conditioners, PCs, automobiles, and large-screen TVs. Moreover, it is estimated that the advanced level of consumer durables that Japan experienced in the 1980s will make significant progress in the urban areas of China in the next 10 years.

Another important change that every country is making in promoting energy infrastructure construction and medical reform is that at present all countries in the world are advancing energy infrastructure construction and implementing health care reform policies, so the situation has changed accordingly. All countries are accelerating the pace of importing smart grids.

Solar power generation and wind power generation require the use of natural energy, and the amount of power generation will change drastically with time or weather conditions. Therefore, when the current power grid imports more than 20% of new energy, there will be problems such as reverse flow or unstable power supply. In order to solve these problems, countries are stepping up their efforts to import smart grids. Both Europe, the United States, and China are steadily advancing the smart grid import program. It is estimated that the smart grid will attract attention as a driving force for the growth of semiconductor consumption by 2020.

As reported by the media, there are currently problems with the medical system in all countries. Because there is no national health insurance in the United States, the number of people who are unable to pay a huge amount of medical expenses is increasing, and one quarter of the personal bankruptcy is due to the inability to afford medical expenses. In Europe, due to lack of health insurance resources, medical expenses are continuously rising, and hospitals that have been closed down due to business downturn are also increasing. In particular, developed countries are currently facing problems such as increasing aging and the shortage of doctors and hospitals. In order to solve these problems, countries are considering making home care more of a proportion. Through the improvement of the division of labor system, the family conducts health management, disease prevention and inspection, etc. The hospital specializes in expert treatment to promote the effective use of medical institutions.

The "5 major electronic products" that will drive the growth of semiconductor consumption in the next 10 years

Based on the above changes, it can be predicted that the following five kinds of products will become the main electronic products that will boost the growth of semiconductor consumption in the next 10 years. Below we analyze the trends of these products and the expansion of semiconductor consumption in order.

(1) The tablet terminal represented by "iPad" is estimated to be popular with laptops for high-income layers in developed and developing countries. It is expected that the tablet terminal will eventually become popular due to non-work use. In 2010, the semiconductor consumption of the tablet terminal will be 240 billion yen, and the notebook computer will be 4 trillion yen. By 2020, both will expand to 3 trillion 150 billion yen and 8 trillion yen respectively.

(2) For mobile phones, consumers in developed countries will gradually switch to smart phones, and developing countries still have room to increase their penetration rate. In addition, smart phones will gradually become highly functional as they are increasingly used for non-call purposes. As the cost of equipping with semiconductors increases, it will stimulate the growth of semiconductor consumption. Taking these factors into consideration, it is expected that the semiconductor consumption of mobile phones will expand from 2 trillion 400 billion yen in 2010 to 5 trillion 800 billion yen.

(3) In the automotive industry, with the proliferation of hybrid vehicles (HVs) and electric vehicles (EVs), this area is rapidly becoming electronic. In the future, in order to pursue safety, comfort, and energy saving, the number of semiconductors for automobiles will increase. It is estimated that the semiconductor consumption in this field will increase from 1 trillion to 900 billion yen in 2010 to 3 trillion in 2020. Billion yen.

(4) The smart grid is the most important infrastructure investment project to be promoted in the next 10 years. The demand for smart meters, power routers, and servers will increase dramatically. It is estimated that by 2020, the semiconductor consumption will increase from the current zero to 1 trillion 500 billion yen.

(5) In terms of medical equipment, it is estimated that the future demand for semiconductors will shift from specialized equipment used by current medical institutions to products for disease prevention and disease inspection used by individuals or families. Includes game-like products for maintaining health or preventing diseases, and products that automatically check for diseases in the home. It is estimated that the consumption of semiconductors for medical devices will increase from 800 billion yen in 2010 to 13,000 billion yen by 2020.

By 2020, the semiconductor consumption of the "5 major electronic products" will increase from 9 trillion 480 billion yen in 2010 to 23 trillion 600 billion yen, and the share of the semiconductor market will increase from 31%. To 55%. Since around 2009, major overseas semiconductor manufacturers — Intel of the United States, Texas Instruments of the United States, and STMicroelectronics — have stated that they will be committed to the automotive, energy, and medical semiconductors business in the future. It is indeed a strategy to adapt to the times.

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