US Department of Energy LED Series Report Track Comments

The U.S. Department of Energy issued an LED lighting series report, which calculated the total energy consumption of LED lighting products from production to final use, and forecasted changes in the market share, price, and luminous efficiency of LED lighting products.

Recently, the United States Department of Energy (DOE) released the "Life-Cycle Assessment of Energy and Environmental Impacts of LED Lighting Products" report, which counts the total energy consumption of incandescent lamps, energy-saving lamps, and LED lamps from production, transportation, and final use.

The U.S. Department of Energy also released the “Energy Savings Potential of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications” report, which forecasts the market share, luminous efficiency, and price changes of LED lamps from now to 2030.

The report pointed out that in 11 years, the median total energy consumption for the production, transportation, and use of LED lamps has been equal to that of energy-saving lamps, which is only 1/4 of incandescent lamps. In 15 years, the median total energy consumption of LED lamps will decrease. In the 1/2 year of energy-saving lamps, the energy consumption of LED lamps in the production process accounted for 6.6% of the total energy consumption, of which 75% came from chip packaging. In 15 years, this proportion is expected to drop to 56%.

The report pointed out that the production of 800 lm LED lamps in 11 years requires 16 chips, the number of chips needed in 15 years will be reduced to 5, the median life of LED lights from 25,000 hours to 40,000 hours. In 11-15 years, the luminous efficiency and lifespan of LED lamps increased by 133% and 34%, respectively, and the price dropped by 64%.

The report predicts that LED lights will account for 36% of total lighting energy consumption by 2020, and its share in 2030 will increase to 74%. For scene analysis of the proportion of LED lighting applications, under the assumption of 15 years of pessimism/neutral/optimistic conditions, LED lighting applications accounted for 4.3%/9.5%/13.7% respectively; in 20 years, the proportion of LED lighting applications will increase. To 21.3%/35.8%/45.2%, this ratio will increase to 43.4%/59%/65.3% in 25 years.

In terms of the subdivision ratio of LED lighting applications, the highest US LED lighting use in 10 years is outdoor lighting, accounting for 10.8%, followed by commercial lighting accounting for 1.8%. In 15 years, the proportion of LED lighting in residential, commercial, industrial and outdoor lighting in the United States will increase to 8.1%, 5%, 8.8%, and 29%; in 20 years, these proportions will increase to 37.6%, 27.8%, and 36% respectively. , 64.2%; 25 years, 60.7%, 52.5%, 59.2%, 81.6%.

We believe that according to the DOE's report, at the end of the 12th to the 13th of the year, the equivalent 40W incandescent LED lamp price will drop to the US$10 “sweet spot”, while the equivalent 60W incandescent LED lamp price will be at the end of the 13th- At the beginning of 14 it dropped to 10 dollars. 13 years will be the starting year for large-scale application of LED lighting products indoors.

We believe that the statistical results of DOE eliminate doubts about "pseudo-energy conservation" of LED lamps and will accelerate the pace of production and application of LED lighting products by governments around the world. DOE is very optimistic about the progress of LED technology in three directions: 1) In 11-15 years, the luminous efficiency of LED lamps has increased more than 2 times; 2.) Life expectancy has increased by 60%; 3.) Production costs have been reduced by nearly 60%.

At the same time, we believe that the series of reports released by DOE in the 12th year has shown its continuing preference for LED lighting products. For a long time, DOE has been using LED (not energy-saving lamps) as the main energy-saving lighting product. We believe that with the gradual phase-out of incandescent products, the expansion of LED lighting products for energy-saving lamps, and the introduction and implementation of supportive policies for LED lighting industry in various countries, the prices of LED lighting products will continue to decline, and the LED lighting market will continue to develop healthily. .