July 17—According to a report from "The New Yorker," Tesla's Model 3 has just rolled off the production line, priced at only $35,000, with a battery range of 215 miles. These figures have drawn significant attention from consumers.
However, for other automobile manufacturers, they are particularly interested in the Model 3's autonomous driving technology. Tesla has equipped the Model 3 with an Autopilot system that uses onboard cameras, radar, and ultrasonic sensors to detect the surroundings. It adjusts speed based on traffic conditions, performs automatic parking, and can even change lanes or exit highways without requiring manual driver intervention. Elon Musk, Tesla's CEO, recently predicted that within two years, people might be able to relax in a self-driving Tesla and wake up to find themselves at their destination.
Traditionally, automakers have been researching autonomous driving technology for quite some time, but they haven't felt much urgency in the past. Recently, however, their attitudes have shifted dramatically. Suddenly, the rapid development of self-driving car technology presents a real challenge to traditional vehicles. Car manufacturers are now racing to develop their own autopilot systems, worried about being left behind.
This fear is evident in the recent moves by several traditional automakers. Last year, General Motors spent $1 billion to acquire Cruise Automation, a company specializing in autopilot software, and invested $500 million in ride-sharing service Lyft to develop autonomous driving technology. According to the latest data, GM has already produced nearly 200 self-driving electric vehicles.
Nissan has partnered with NASA’s Ames Research Center to develop an autonomous all-terrain vehicle for space exploration. They aim to produce such a vehicle by 2020. Other major players like Fiat Chrysler, BMW, Honda, Mercedes-Benz, and Ford also plan to begin producing self-driving cars in the same year.
In 2015, Ford opened an R&D center in Palo Alto, followed by the creation of Smart Mobility, which focuses on autonomous driving technology. The firing of Ford’s former CEO, Mark Fields, in May was partly due to Bill Ford’s frustration with the slow progress of the company’s self-driving car project. The new CEO, Jim Hackett, previously led Ford’s Smart Mobility division.
What has changed? Simply put, Silicon Valley has rediscovered Detroit. Companies like Google, Apple, Uber, and venture capitalists have poured hundreds of billions of dollars into creating hardware and software for self-driving cars. Tech companies have turned their attention toward robotics and artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving technology fits perfectly into this trend.
This investment is tied to previous business strategies. Apple’s billions in investments are largely linked to urban road traffic data. Similarly, Uber has a stake in Didi, and Google has invested in Lyft. Famous chipmaker Nvidia collaborated with German mapping service provider Here to develop an AI-based GPS positioning system for autonomous vehicles. A few months ago, Intel acquired Israeli computer vision processing company Mobileye for $1.5 billion.
All in all, over the past few years, dozens of startups and tech companies have entered the autonomous driving field, shaking up the traditional auto industry. As Doug Newcomb, a senior automotive media expert and CEO of automotive website C3, noted, “Traditional automakers are relatively conservative and not yet prepared to handle external shocks. For the entire industry, everything happening before them is unprecedented.â€
By sacrificing short-term profits and increasing investment in autonomous driving, many tech companies in Silicon Valley are scrambling to seize the new heights of the automotive industry. Boston Consulting Group predicts that by 2035, 25% of new car purchases will be autonomous vehicles. Uber’s own self-driving unit, Otto, recently tested a self-driving truck in Colorado, transporting 2,000 cases of Budweiser beer from Fort Collins to Colorado Springs—a total distance of 120 miles. Google has also built approximately 700 self-driving cars, including Lexus SUVs and Chrysler minivans. Since launching its autonomous car tests in 2009, Google’s research team has logged 3 million miles on highways in California, Texas, Arizona, and Washington.
These large-scale investments by tech companies have undoubtedly caused concern for traditional automakers. They risk losing significant profits in car manufacturing to Silicon Valley firms, allowing companies like Google and Apple to add sensors to traditional vehicles and build their own branded cars. This could gradually erode traditional automakers’ profits, reduce maintenance and repair services, and weaken the relationship between automakers and consumers. Alternatively, traditional automakers can treat tech companies as suppliers and learn to build their own self-driving cars. Clearly, most automakers have chosen the latter route.
Even though traditional automakers may not fully embrace the vision of eliminating car ownership entirely, the idea of autonomous vehicles roaming cities all day, with people summoning rides via the cloud, suggests a future where the economic rationale for buying a car will vanish. A report by the Rocky Mountain Institute suggests that if self-driving car services become widespread, similar to today’s Lyft or Uber, the cost to consumers would be comparable to owning and operating a car, with mileage costs under $1 per mile. It would eliminate issues like maintenance, parking, and traffic congestion. Another study by RethinkX, a technology analysis firm, predicts that self-driving cars will lead to the end of car ownership. The study claims that by 2030, 95% of U.S. passenger travel will be handled by self-driving cars, saving each American household $5,600 annually in transportation costs. These studies imply that the current scale of traditional automakers will become irrelevant as technology evolves.
Of course, achieving this vision remains challenging. Automakers are still doing their best to maintain the massive car sales market. Additionally, there are still many technical hurdles to overcome in self-driving cars. Currently, fully autonomous vehicles that don’t require any manual intervention remain far beyond current technological capabilities.
From a safety perspective, it is hoped that cars can completely free themselves from human drivers. Over the past few years, the number of fatalities from motor vehicle accidents has continued to rise. Globally, one million people die in traffic accidents annually, with 96% of these deaths attributed to driver error. Last September, the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration issued detailed guidelines for testing and deploying self-driving cars. Human-driven autonomous vehicles can significantly reduce accidents related to human behavior. However, relevant research can only continue when humans fully trust driving machines. Studies have shown that humans struggle to respond effectively to emergencies when taking over from autonomous vehicles. In other words, trusting cool machines with our lives is the wisest choice. This is at least part of the reason why Silicon Valley tech companies have invested heavily. (Translated by Han Bing)
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