Comment: How far iPad can go in the post-PC era

The iPad revolution has brought the entire IT industry to the post-PC era, and disregards the tablet market it opened up. iPad brings a huge revolution to the tablet industry. So, why is the iPad so successful?

Judging from the development trend, the current user behavior has triggered profound changes in the mobile field and promoted the rapid rise of mobile Internet terminals. People often carry mobile devices to various locations. Users' demands for mobile internet terminals and web application services are constantly on the rise. Mobile phones and traditional computers are increasingly unable to meet the needs of users for portable and functional applications. This is a market for tablet computers. New opportunities come. iPad as a product between smart phones and laptops, it jumped out of the limitations of the laptop's time and space, breaking the smart phone's size and functional limitations, and has anytime, anywhere reading, audio and video playback, picture management and other unique Experience, thus dividing an exclusive market between mobile phones and computers.

Judging from the business model, the core elements of Apple's unprecedented success are consistent with the success of giants such as Google and IBM, all of which originate from the ecosystem it creates and controls. For example, Google's innovative ecosystem is based on Google's technology platform. Google, as an owner and operator, controls the development of the system and earns a very high percentage of revenue from it.

Judging from the competitive strategy, Apple unknowingly built a difficult barrier for all competitors: first, build platforms and control channels; second, unify terminals and buy out components. On the one hand, Apple pioneered the three major platforms of iTunes, App Store, and iBooks, providing users with fast access to music, software, and books. As the mobile internet terminal that integrates the three platforms, the iPad will continue to extend its value chain through the integration of more application service platforms in the mobile internet era. On the other hand, Apple's terminals are highly unified. There is only one product for each generation, and the screen sizes, functional positioning, and other specifications of adjacent two generations of products are similar. This not only makes the development of the application more convenient, but also makes it more concentrated in the range of parts it purchases, so that it can sign long-term low-price contracts through scale advantages and buy out future key components. According to the survey, Apple occupies about 60% of the global touch screen panel supply, seriously affecting other companies' shipping plans and costs.

iPad was born at the very beginning of controversy, its rapid popularity also makes people think of the Internet short-lived. How far the iPad can go in the future depends on the following factors:

The first is the life cycle of the tablet PC industry. According to the technology adoption life cycle theory, the Tablet PC industry led by iPad is in the early adopter stage, but when the entire industry continues to mature and enter the late stage, the iPad can not escape the fate of the past. In the area of ​​consumer electronics, this cycle is even shorter. However, I suspect that with the rapid development of chip technology and new materials in the mobile field, the future of tablet computers will not simply replace laptops or smart phones, but through the integration of form and function, portability and strong performance will be More centralized and unified, users no longer need to carry three terminals at the same time. Whether the iPad can continue to lead this long-term fusion and successful transformation is the key to its life cycle.

Followed by Apple's closed ecosystem. One of the biggest features of the iPad is the closeness of its system. The iPad does not support memory card expansion. Transferring files must be synchronized via the computer's iTunes. In doing so, it can protect intellectual property to the maximum extent, and at the same time, it strictly blocks viruses from entering the apple ecosystem. But over-closed products are very likely to decline in the open Internet era. Therefore, I believe that Apple's closed ecosystem is not going to remain the same, when the iPad share fell sharply, and its platform profitability model is more perfect, Apple will be appropriately released according to market demand.

Again, it is a transition from hard to soft. In the short term, iPad will mainly rely on equipment profit, but in the long run, the value-added services provided by iCloud will become more and more important. However, in this field, Amazon and Google have already taken the lead and penetrated widely through the terminals of various manufacturers. It is difficult for Apple Cloud Services to use its own products such as the iPad to occupy the mainstream of the market.

There is no doubt that the iPad not only defines new products, but also sets new business rules. It seems that Samsung is relying on a comprehensive industrial chain to continue to force end products; Amazon with a strong platform to push low-priced tablet, accelerate the popularity of business models based on back-office services; Google wants to gain a firm foothold through the vertical integration of Motorola. It can be foreseen that the iPad's market share will gradually be eroded in the next 3 to 5 years, but the dominant position will be maintained and will continue in the continuous integration with the iPhone and Macbook.