Can Qualcomm pose a threat to Intel's dominance?

The global chip makers are eyeing the future growth of the server market, and the ARM architecture camp is in full swing. In 2016, the imprisonment of Intel’s mouth is indispensable to the mobile phone chip leader Qualcomm...

It is no longer news that the global chip makers are eyeing the future growth of the server market. Qualcomm, a mobile phone chip maker, announced its entry into the server market in November 2014. In 2015, its official blog announced the first server chip with an ARM architecture of 24 cores. In December 2016, Qualcomm finally made an official press release to let the industry know the specific progress of Qualcomm - the first server chip Centriq2400 has been sampled. AMD, which has been struggling to catch up with Intel for a long time, is also planning to take the next-generation architecture processor known as "Zen" to grab the server market.

Will Intel, which is in a leading position, loosen?

First look at AMD from Intel with the same x86 architecture. One of the markets that AMD is launching this year, one of the markets it targets, is the server market. The new generation Zen series uses Samsung's 14nm FinFET process. Compared to the previous generation of chips, the 28nm process is used. The performance of the Zen series chips can indeed achieve the big leap forward.

Also in the x86 architecture camp, AMD is seen as one of the most likely candidates to challenge the Intel hegemony and loosen its dominance. However, AMD's chip computing power has fallen behind Intel, and Intel has already built a complete server ecosystem. AMD is threatening Intel, I am afraid it is not so easy.

Observing the server supply chain ecosystem, most of the products supplied by the two server leaders HP and Dell use Intel chips. Although AMD claims that the next-generation chip performance is not competitive, and there are price advantages, Adoption also means that from the beginning of the motherboard design, you must fully support AMD. And AMD itself must also release considerable sincerity, provide corresponding resources to customers, and facilitate operators to have no worries about server development. However, with the current delay in the time-to-market of Zen series chips, AMD will not only be able to support its downstream brands, but whether its chip products will be launched as scheduled will be the focus of observation.

ARM architecture camp is also coming

In addition to AMD, in 2016, the imprisonment of Intel's mouth is of course the ubiquitous mobile phone chip Qualcomm. The smartphone market grows into the plateau period. From the data point of view, TrendForce estimates that the annual growth rate of smartphone production in 2017 will be only 4.5%. It is not difficult to see that the big manufacturers who have focused on mobile phone chips in the past are eager to cut into other markets. Sex.

Qualcomm introduced the Centriq2400, which uses the ARMv8 instruction set, and then the Qualcomm-customized Falkor architecture, with a maximum core count of 48 cores. Qualcomm publicly pointed out that the server applications that are locked are mainly computationally intensive types of data centers.

Qualcomm's first server chip is expected to enter mass production in 2018. However, despite its low power consumption, the ARM architecture chip is still not competitive with the Intel-led x86 architecture camp. At present, it is mostly used for the storage of the data center, and the data calculation part of the previous paragraph is still dominated by Intel.

Can AMD/Qualcomm pose a threat to Intel's dominance?

Not only the performance of the chip, but in fact, another key to the success of the ARM architecture chip into the server market is "Ecosystem". Intel has dominated the server market for many years. In addition to constructing a complete hardware supply chain, the level of cooperation and support for corresponding software has virtually increased the threshold for latecomers.

Observing the sales side, when the company replaces the server, its consideration point is not only the performance, but the biggest key is whether the software is compatible after the replacement, and most software companies use Intel products as the benchmark when solving software compatibility problems. Instead of the ARM architecture chip, when the enterprise purchases, considering the convenience of the operation, the server equipped with Intel is of course still the first choice.

However, the ARM camp has begun to show results in the management of the server ecosystem in recent years. For example, RedHat has publicly stated that their cooperation with ARM is quite close. In the open source field, ARM has gradually begun to achieve some results.

Intel's dominance is not easy to shake in the short term

If the support for software has gradually come into place, then what remains is how to establish a "mutual trust" relationship with server brands and foundries.

Unlike a laptop or a smart phone, the server does not have the same product life cycle. The server system is designed, tested, mass-produced, and quality-controlled. It takes more than one year to two years. It takes only 3 to 4 years to update in a modular or virtualized manner. Therefore, it is necessary to adopt a server chip with a new architecture.

In a nutshell, although AMD and Qualcomm are quite active in the server market, however, due to the problem of mass production time, plus technical support, software ecosystem and vendor trust relationship is not as good as Intel's case, Intel is in the server. The market share of over 90% is really difficult to shake in the short term, but as the demand in the Chinese market has risen sharply, and the layout of the x86 camp or the ARM camp chip factory is becoming more and more active, Intel still needs to step by step.

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